Is there a limit to the human lifespan? There are a few differing theories. Some argue that, yes, maximum lifespan is finite. Others think that with advances in medicine, the maximum could increase, but ultimately, our days are numbered.
However, there is another possibility: the human lifespan is – at least theoretically – limitless. It's an alluring thought, supported by two recent studies and some pretty sophisticated statistical analyses.
In this short episode, we discuss...
"Researchers projected forward to the year 2100 and found that the current maximum age record...will almost certainly be broken by the end of this century."- Rhonda Patrick, Ph.D. Click To Tweet
Is there a limit to human aging? That's a hotly debated topic. Some scientists would argue that yes, maximum lifespan is finite. Others think that with advances in medicine, the maximum could increase, but ultimately, our days are numbered.
However, some scientists think that human lifespan is – at least theoretically – limitless. It's an alluring thought, supported by two recent studies and some pretty sophisticated statistical analyses.
The first of these studies investigated the likelihood that if you've won the aging lottery and lived to the age of 110, what are your chances of living another year? Or another decade? Or even longer? To answer these questions, the researchers used "extreme value theory," a field of statistics focused on predicting incredibly rare events.
They found that the trajectory of the probability of death from year to year (known as "force of mortality") actually plateaus after the age of 110 years, suggesting that after a person reaches supercentenarian status, their chances of achieving the upper limit of aging is roughly 50-50 – basically, a coin toss.
In the other study, researchers investigated whether people will likely surpass 120 years of age (the current record), or even older, in the next century. Their findings suggested that the current record will likely be broken in the next 80 years or so, but it's unlikely that anyone will live beyond 135 years. Only time will tell.
Until then, what can you do to ensure you reach a healthy old age? The best bets seem to be on reducing the burden of chronic inflammation and identifying lifestyle factors that improve metabolic health. For example, robust evidence indicates that exercise, sauna use, cold exposure, eating plenty of polyphenol-rich fruits and vegetables, and many other lifestyle factors slow aging.
But recent research has revealed some promising technologies that may slow, or even reverse, some markers of aging. One I'm particularly excited about is interrupted cellular reprogramming, a process that resets epigenetic and functional aspects of the cellular maturation processes, allowing them to regain a youthful cellular identity.
There's a lot of exciting research right now into aging and maximum lifespan, but scientists have really just scratched the surface of the fascinating topic of how to live longer, healthier lives.
Introduction
The three camps of longevity theory
Extreme value theory suggests that lifespan has no limit
The force of mortality plateaus around age 110
Breaking the current age record by the year 2100
How to reach a healthy old age
An individual's chance of dying within the next year. For example, a person celebrating their 110th birthday has an age-specific probability of death of 53 percent, meaning they have a 47 percent chance of living until their 111th birthday.
The estimated chance of a person dying at a precise moment in time. Unlike the Age-Specific Probability of Death, the Force of Mortality uses calculus to predict death at a specific age (e.g., the instant a person turns 80).
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